EDDIE Howe had warned against relying on the ifs and buts of the race for the play-offs, and Saturday proved why.

With Nottingham Forest being held to a goalless draw at home to struggling Doncaster, Burnley would have closed in even further on sixth spot if they had beaten Millwall.

Swansea’s slip-up at Derby would also have brought the second automatic promotion place even closer had they maintained a Turf Moor fortress that few would have anticipated being breached by a side that hadn’t won away since November.

But perhaps considering the prospects of those far reaching forecasts is where the Clarets have gone wrong.

Without even having a toe in the top six yet, they must walk before they can run.

They did neither on Saturday. Instead, they stumbled.

Early goals had provided a key cushion in the previous two games, and the were made to count thanks to clean sheets being kept at the other end, demonstrating a new-found resilience.

Clarke Carlisle and Michael Duff defended like lions against Crystal Palace and Hull City, but it was a different story when they were thrown to them.

Howe will have the duo and their team-mates working hard at Gawthorpe today, in preparation for tomorrow night’s visit of Coventry City, to iron out the mistakes that led to two of Millwall’s three second half goals being shipped from corners.

Lions captain Paul Robinson had scored only one goal all season but was gifted the opportunity to triple his tally with two unchallenged headers.

Andros Townsend killed the game off in a manner that typified the visitors’ style and summed up a bad day at the office the Burnley’s back line.

Goalkeeper David Forde’s long goal kick was flicked on by Steve Morison, and Carlisle was isolated with three forwards to contend with when Townsend’s drive nestled in the bottom right corner.

There were key moments for the Clarets.

Fresh from scoring four minutes into his debut to secure last Tuesday’s win at Hull, Nathan Delfouneso was denied by the woodwork in the 13th minute of his first home game.

Jay Rodriguez cushioned a header towards the on-loan Aston Villa striker from Tyrone Mears’ chipped free kick, but Delfouneso’s header for the top right corner bounced off the crossbar and behind.

Rodriguez would have celebrated a new two-year deal with a goal from Ross Wallace’s well-worked cut back soon after had it not been for a brave block, while second half substitute Chris Iwelumo was wrestled to the ground by Robinson, but a blatant penalty wasn’t awarded.

A hat-trick of hard-luck stories, but Burnley had too often been their own worst enemy.

Promising passing moves were few and far between, possession was given up too easily and patience was in short supply as frustrations grew, both on the pitch and in the stands.

Millwall, buoyant from beating Championship leaders QPR in midweek, sensed an opportunity but James Henry twice missed the target and Steve Morison’s attempted lob was caught comfortably by Grant.

Burnley were brighter when the second half got underway but when Dean Marney was presented with another opening after going close with a first-half header, his drive didn’t threaten Forde enough.

The Clarets continued to plug away, but had the wind taken out of their sails when the Lions took the lead against the run of play.

Danny Fox might have done more to prevent the ball from crossing the byeline in the first instance, but questions will be asked as to why Robinson was allowed to rise unchallenged to meet Townsend’s corner at the far left post and power in a header.

Even so, Burnley should not have feared the worst at that point. They have, afterall, rescued an unrivalled 23 points from losing positions this season.

But their powers of recovery failed them and Robinson headed in his and Millwall’s second in a similar fashion after Townsend’s corner was played short to Henry, and the defender bulldozed into the box to get on the end of the cross to make it 2-0.

Howe had already traded Chris Eagles for Iwelumo to offer a physically bigger presence up front, and Wade Elliott had come on for Delfouneso to get balls into the box.

But when he did, Robinson stopped Iwelumo from connecting by throwing his arms around the striker’s neck and dragging him back.

The Clarets knew it wasn’t their day when the offence wasn’t acknowledged with a penalty, and Townsend put the game beyond doubt with three minutes to go.

Burnley’s first home defeat of 2011 was one goal shy of equalling their heaviest loss of the season at a crucial time of the campaign.

Perhaps they should have seen this blip coming. Not since 2005 have they managed to string four wins together.

But 16 points from a possible 18 were earned after their previous setback – a 1-0 defeat at Doncaster more than a month ago.

If they can do that again, they should be sitting in the top six rather than looking up at it.