BOUGHT any fancy tiles lately? Traded in your dull grey car for a red one? Been to the pictures for the first time in ages? Dined out for a change?

Odd questions, they may be. But they are the sort the political mood-watchers ask when taking the nation's pulse.

And they must have been getting plenty of positive answers.

For when the present state of public optimism is measured with the more straightforward poser of "Which party will you vote for?" it's the Conservatives who get the biggest lift today.

That's because in the crucial battle for the hearts and ballot-paper crosses of the middle classes - who now constitute almost half the electorate - the trailing Tories are on what could be a momentous comeback.

The latest opinion poll shows them neck-and-neck with Labour among voters in this crucial group - with each at around 40 per cent. Fewer than two years ago, in the wake of Tony Blair's ascent to the Labour leadership, the Tories trailed by as many as 48 points with the middle classes. What's happened?

Middle England, it appears, is buying those fancy tiles for the kitchen, going to the pictures more and being less conservative about the colour of its cars. In short, its voters are forgetting their cares or sensing they have fewer of them.

The feel-good factor the government has long pined for has, it seems, finally turned up.

The worries about job security, mortgages repayments, negative equity have evidently diminished, at least in leafy traditionally-Tory suburbia, and the disgruntled voters who showed signs of flocking in droves to New Labour appear to be coming back to the Conservatives.

Indeed, given such optimistic economic indicators as falling unemployment, low inflation, real incomes rising by 2.5 per cent, the cheapest mortgages for a generation, a recovering housing market and decreasing negative equity, over all of which the government has presided for months, perhaps the biggest puzzle is why confidence has taken so long to return.

True, the numbers are still not all good for the Conservatives - with all voters, their support is now up three points on a year ago, they still lag behind Labour by the marked margin of 21 points and with eight months at most to go to the next election.

Yet, this shift on the middle ground could prove pivotal. Apparently on cruise-control towards Downing Street until now, Tony Blair could now find himself in a real scrap.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.