TRYING to ascertain how many points will be required for Premier League survival is like trying to predict the weather for May 24, or when Johann Vogel might find the cure for invisibility. But I will attempt it all the same. Forty-one.

Luckily for Blackburn Rovers fans that is the opinion, not the fact, and indeed most have so far predicted a figure slightly or even considerably lower.

But the need for 10 points from their last eight games – Rovers currently have 31 from 30 matches – cannot be ruled out.

Sam Allardyce will know only too well to think of a high number when he considers his safety target.

His Bolton Wanderers side needed 42 points to escape on goal difference six years ago after a late surge from the doomed United - that West Ham team of Joe Cole, Michael Carrick, Jermain Defoe, David James et al.

The bottom three may currently be on less than a point per game, but the relegation silly season – only marginally less harebrained than the transfer silly season – is about to start.

A period in which the likes of Newcastle United, Middlesbrough and Portsmouth might finally see the waterfall in front of them and start paddling like fury.

Even West Bromwich Albion - the one truly hopeless cause of this tightest of relegation battles - could be capable of winning their most difficult fixtures, against Manchester City and Liverpool, if they felt inclined to summon up the necessary determination. Don’t hold your breath on that one, though.

It is West Brom who come to Ewood Park on the final day of the season on May 24 (weather still to be determined), and it may be that both clubs will know their fate by then.

Tony Mowbray’s men, in all probability, will be on the way back to meet their Championship makers.

In contrast, Rovers could be safe – if not mathematically but barring a freakish set of results, even by the standards of a relegation battle.

To do that, it is likely they will need those 10 points by the time they go to Chelsea a week earlier.

Given that visits to Anfield and Eastlands still await, that leaves four games in which they must target three wins and a draw.

Those games are Tottenham at home on Saturday, a trip to Stoke City and subsequent Ewood matches against Wigan Athletic and Portsmouth.

So anything less than three points against a revived Spurs could leave them playing catch-up and needing a win at the Britannia if they are to avoid that nerve-shredding, radio-clutched-to-the-ear final day.

Hell, Jean-Paul Sartre once said, is other people.

Hell, I can also confirm, is a slightly underwhelming and not particularly frightening village I once visited in Norway on the way to see Rosenborg versus Valencia (the obvious choice for a holiday, I'm sure you'll agree).

But, for Allardyce, hell is going into that last day with the spectre of relegation hanging over you.

He barely slept in the week leading up to Bolton’s final day victory over Middlesbrough six years ago.

That can yet be avoided. But to do so, it is hard to see anything less than victory on Saturday being good enough.

* How many points will Rovers need for safety? Have your say by using the comment facility below.