Blackburn need answer to big question after overachievement

Rovers ended 2022 third in the Championship with 39 points from 25 games. A remarkable tally, really, considering the level of their performances at the start of the 22/23 season.

Jon Dahl Tomasson's side have undoubtedly improved in the past 12 months but finish the calendar year with a lower points total than at this stage last year. It's a funny old sport, football.

Rovers were incredibly reliant on individual moments, which helped them to win 13 of their first 25 but they also lost the other 12. Their underlying numbers pointed to one thing, a natural drop-off when their hot streak in front of goal fizzled out.

That eventually came as variance caught up with them. January brought the worst result of 2023, a 4-0 battering at Rotherham United. Remarkably, after 27 games without a league draw, they then followed that up with four in a row. Typical.

The January window ended badly, nobody needs a reminder of that, and so Rovers fans were understandably feeling bleak at the end of the first month, not knowing which way the season would turn.

What followed was a transformative 30 days. From February 18 to March 19, Rovers' finally clicked into gear under Tomasson. The football was exhilarating, individuals raised their game and suddenly there was an identity, patterns of play.

Of course, that doesn't just happen overnight but the work on the training ground was playing out. Ironically, it all started after Ben Brereton Diaz, top-scorer, was out of the side with an injury. 

The highlights of Rovers' 2023 came in that month. Four league wins on the spin, that Harry Pickering goal. Perhaps best of all, the FA Cup run.

It was a night to remember for Blackburn fans at the King Power Stadium as Rovers battered Premier League opposition. Although the Foxes would eventually drop into the Championship, they were far from a relegated side at the time of the match.

Rovers cut them open them like a knife through butter. They could and should have been 4-0 up, had it not been for wayward finishing and an impressive goalkeeping display from Daniel Iversen.

Sam Szmodics was immense and it felt in this run he finally shed his skin as a Blackburn Rovers player. It was the start of what has been a fantastic individual 12 months for him.

In typical Rovers fashion, they didn't take their chances and Leicester almost got back into it. But they got their first scalp, a 2-1 victory against Premier League opponents and a clear blueprint of what a Tomasson side should look like.

From then on, it's been gung-ho football, for better or worse. That's meant they've been burnt a few times along the way. It's high-energy, high-risk football and when the percentages aren't quite right, it can unwind. 

We've seen that with the amount of goals Rovers have conceded particularly. But on the flip side, some of the one-touch, slick, intricate football that's been produced has been exhilarating. 

When they're on it, Rovers' ceiling is very high. Good enough to match anyone in the division. The aim now is to raise their floor and hit a minimum level of performance, which is hard to achieve with young players.

They create so many chances but taking them remains their Achilles heel. That comes down to experience; Rovers' squad is littered with rough diamonds they are trying to polish.

The development of academy graduates has been another major high in Rovers' year. More talents are breaking through and establishing themselves in the first team.

It's been a big 2023 for Harry Leonard, who has shown plenty of promise. Perhaps too much is being expected because of the issues up front so it's important to take a step back and remember he's 20. The signs are very promising for the future.

Adam Wharton continues to be a shining light and at his best, he is unplayable. He's started more Championship games this season than last already and his consistency is growing. Tying him to a new long-term contract was an unexpected boost for the club, who have full control of his destiny.

Ultimately, if his development continues on its current trajectory, he won't be at Ewood Park forever. But it's important Rovers extract the maximum value when the time is right. In the meantime, they have a fantastic talent who is settled playing for his boyhood club. That's not a bad spot to be in.

Rovers' academy is still their biggest asset and they have the right people in charge of the football operations to maximise it. Stuart Jones and everyone involved in that side of the operations are doing a job that is worth being proud of.

On the pitch, there is plenty to be pleased about. Sure, Rovers missed out on the top-six and they looking increasingly likely to finish mid-table this season but the long-term health of the club has improved in 2023 from a football operations perspective.

The short-term remains in a state of flux off the pitch, though. Venky's have been hit by unprecedented restrictions in India which has made funding the club increasingly difficult.

It would be remiss of me to say that I know how - or when - it will end. Ultimately, not even those at the very top of the club can say. What is encouraging though, is the Venky's are still putting money in, where possible.

If the owners were absent, they wouldn't have pushed £11.5m of funding through the High Court to pay the bills for the end of the year. Whenever the cheques have needed signing off, they have done so.

But in order for Rovers to take a step forward, the club needs clarity as soon as possible. Tomasson's squad are swimming against the tide in terms of their league position.

Finishing seventh was an overachievement. It was always going to be impossible to improve with the loss of their top-scorer, a 15 per cent reduction to the budget and no players over the age of 28. 

The concern is if Venky's have to keep scaling back, year-on-year, there are only so many times you can overperform. The truth is, Tomasson will probably fancy his chances at landing another English job when his Rovers deal ends, should the current situation remain the same.

It is blindingly obvious what Rovers need to take the next step on their journey. So much of the building blocks are in place; the foundations are solid but they need some star quality to finish the house.

January is unlikely to yield the necessary reinforcements needed to transform Rovers' into a genuine play-off chaser, though the return of key players from injury will help. 

The biggest hope for any Rovers fan must be that Venky's can supply the funds Tomasson needs for a proper crack at the top-six next year. Whether that's possible remains to be seen.

So, 2023 has been a year of improvement. There's an identity, a clear style and more academy talent to make Rovers fans proud. The question marks are off the field and hopefully, 2024 will provide some answers.