Tony Mowbray continues to urge caution despite Rovers’ five-game winning run moving them to within a point of the automatic promotion places.

Stretching the run to six games at Hull City on Boxing Day would, at least for 24 hours, move them second in the table. Yet you won’t get the Rovers manager entertaining any talk of what lies ahead for his side, other than a mere focus on the next game.

And that comes with good reason, recent history at Rovers and his own personal experience are an indicator of just how things can change.

Rovers have never been as high as they are in the table at this stage of a season since the Premier League title win of 1994/95. They have seven more points at the halfway mark than their previous best Championship haul since relegation from the Premier League (35 in 2019/20).

The 42 points they have is the same tally they had at the halfway stage of their 2000/01 Championship promotion campaign.

Now for the reason for caution.

In all three of Mowbray’s previous three completed Championship seasons there has been a downturn in points in the second half of the season.

Their 57 last season were made up of 32 in the first half and 25 in the second. There was a seven point difference in the 2019/20 campaign (35-28) while in their first season back they managed 31 points in the first 23 games and 29 in the second set.

Across those three seasons, they took only 11 points from a possible 55 in February and nine out of 36 in March.

Going further back, only two Championship seasons since relegation from the Premier League has brought more points in the second half of the campaign than the first.

The most recent was in 2016/17 when they took 31 points from their final 23 games (22 from 15 under Mowbray) in the season that eventually ended in relegation, owing much to only having 18 points at the halfway stage.

The other was in 2013/14 when they added 39 points to their 31 at the halfway stage to finish in eighth, their best finish of the most recent Championship era.

While those pre-dated Mowbray’s time at Rovers, he is aware of his previous tilts at promotion.

In 2015/16 when manager of Coventry City he had the Sky Blues, spearheaded by Adam Armstrong, flying high in League One. After 23 games they had 43 points and sat fourth, two points off the automatic promotion spots.

Yet, as Armstrong’s goals dried up, they managed only 26 points from their final 23 games to fall-out of the promotion picture, eventually finishing eighth, five points outside the top six.

Doubling their tally at the halfway stage would have seen them go up automatically.

While in charge of Middlesbrough, Mowbray had them fourth with 41 points from 23 games.

However, a poor second half of the season saw them only take 18 points from 23 games to finish with 59 and in 16th place. Doubling their tally would have seen them promoted.

In 2011/12, also when at Boro, Mowbray had them in third place, outside of the automatic promotion spots only on goal difference, with 44 points at the halfway stage.

They only managed 26 points in the second half of the campaign to end with 70 points, one place and five points outside of the play-off spots.

Doubling their tally at halfway could have seen them promoted automatically, goal difference dependant.

Yet there is optimism.

In 2007/08 when at West Bromwich Albion Mowbray guided them to the Championship title. Their 44 points at the halfway stage were added to by 37 from their final 23 games that saw them finish two points clear at the top.

And fans of omens will note that Rovers also had 42 points at the halfway stage of their last Championship promotion campaign in 2000/01. They finished with 91, taking an impressive 49 points from their final 23 games to claim automatic promotion having been fourth at the halfway stage.

Rovers are currently averaging 1.83 points per game which equates to 84 points over the course of a campaign.

Taking the 10 year average for the Championship, that would see them fall short of automatic promotion (88 points) but comfortably inside the top six (74.3).

To achieve 75 points, Rovers would need 33 more at an average of 1.43 per game. That figure over a 46 game season would see you reach 66 points. Rovers’ best since returning to the Championship from League One is 63.

Now the maths lesson is over and even with the doubts mentioned above, the very fact this is a discussion point at the halfway mark shows just how impressive they have been in a campaign when this wasn’t expected.