COLUMN by Dominic Harrison, Director of Public Health and Wellbeing Blackburn with Darwen

The Blackburn with Darwen Covid Delta wave case rate peaked on the 7th June. Since then, we have had an almost continuous day to day decline in Covid 19 case rates. Small rises in the overall decline are to be expected, especially as our surge testing programme is effectively now using a much bigger ‘fishing net’!

The successful surge testing programme across the borough has now generated a testing rate of 922 per 100,000. This is one of the highest testing rates in the UK, well over double the national average. In the 7 days prior to a small rise in cases on Monday 21st, the surge testing increased numbers tested by 30% over the previous week. High testing rates allows us to find cases, enable self-isolation and break the chain of transmission of the virus across our communities. It is exactly what we need to be doing.

Last Friday, there were 53 patients in East Lancashire Hospitals Trust with a Covid diagnosis. Twenty three of the 53 hospitalised cases at that point were from Blackburn with Darwen. By Tuesday 22nd June, Covid cases in ELHT had fallen to 44.

During the previous 24 hours to 8 am on 22nd June, there had been 8 Covid admissions but 17 discharges. This is a clear signal that although we may get cases poorly enough to be hospitalised, they respond well to treatment and flow through the hospital is much faster than in previous waves. Nine out of the 44 cases are in critical care. Of the forty four Covid patients on Tuesday, the number with 2 vaccinations was 12 -almost equal Astra Zeneca and Pfizer. Four had 1 dose - also split between both vaccines. Twenty seven of the 44 cases in hospital on 22nd June had had no vaccinations. Those with no vaccinations were mostly under the age of 50. Twenty of the 44 Covid patients were under 55. In terms of ethnicity, 27 were ‘white British’, 13 from an ethnic minority heritage background and 4 had ethnicity un-coded.

Blackburn with Darwen residents had no deaths in April from Covid 19, 6 in May and we have 5 Covid deaths so far in June. The June cases have mostly been over 80 years old with a number of long term health conditions. Some have died with Covid rather than from Covid (by which I mean, they had a Covid diagnosis within 28 days of their death but Covid was not listed as their main cause of death).

So what can we conclude from this? Pennine Lancashire has been hit early in this particular variant wave. The Delta variant was more transmissible and so caused a surge in cases at a point where vaccination roll out was incomplete. We have had some hospitalisations and some deaths- but, even at the peak of infections, these have been both minimal and manageable compared to previous waves.

When we get to the 19th July last lockdown lifting step, whilst we may need to keep some infection control measures in place such as mask wearing in enclosed public space, we are well ready to open up. We need no more lockdowns.

We have managed this variant surge. If another one comes along – we will manage that one too. We are resilient.