Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

A MIDDLE-ranking Government Minister was recently claiming that Chancellor Gordon Brown would replace John Prescott as Deputy Prime Minister in Tony Blair's first Cabinet shuffle.

He is one of many senior Labour figures who still see the Dunfermline East MP becoming Prime Minister, despite the current incumbent's youth and success.

He is one of a covert and powerful network stretching right across government - the Friends of Gordon.

Forget Peter Mandelson, forget Mr Prescott and the left, the FoGs are the most powerful force in the Labour Party other than Mr Blair himself.

If Mr Blair, at the least an Honorary FoG, were to fall, Mr Brown would, especially if married to the attractive Sarah Macauley, be poised to replace him.

One example of the power of this network came over whether Shadow Disabled MInister Tom Clarke would be dropped from government because of his talentlessness.

A senior political journalist said:"NO he won't. He's an FoG."

And Mr Clarke duly got a job as Minister of State for film and tourism at the new Department of Culture, Media and Sport.

Although Mr Brown had Cabinet enemies - notably Mr Prescott, Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, Home Secretary Jack Straw, Education and Employment Secretary David Blunkett, and Agriculture MInister Jack Cunningham - he has supporters too.

And a spy in nearly every camp. In Cabinet, the FoGs include Scottish Secretary Donald Dewar, Bolton-bred Leader of the Commons Ann Taylor and Social Security Secretary Harriet Harman.

This powerful trio is backed up by Transport Minister Gavin Strang allying Cabinet status with being Mr Prescott's deputy at the Environment, Transport Regions SuperMinistry.

Welsh Secretary Ron Davies has forgiven the Chancellor and his most powerful ally in Government - Chief Whip Nick Brown - for stitching him up some years ago in a Shadow Cabinet election. If Mr Davies is a 50/50 FoG, so is Mr Brown's deputy at the Treasury, Chief Secretary Alistair Darling.

The Edinburgh South MP got his post partly to be the "Friend of Tony" keeping an eye on the Treasury alternative power base, but has a good working relationship with his fellow Scot and forms a bridge between 10 and 11 Downing Street.

Just in case, leading "Brownie" Helen Liddel is in place below him as Economic Secretary to the Treasury.

At Defence, the Secretary of State George Robinson is another semi-detached FoG but his deputy John Reid is a fully paid up chum of the Chancellor. Education and Employment has a major FoG to keep a watchful eye on Mr Blunkett in Minister of State Andrew Smith.

In Mr Prescott's SuperMinistry there is another spy in Local Government and Housing MInister Hilary Armstrong.

At the Foreign Office home of Mr Cook, Mr Brown's longest-standing and most implacable enemy - Europe Minister Doug Henderson is safely installed.

At Health the chum in residence is Minister of State Alan Milburn.

In Blackburn MP Mr Straw's Home Office, the resident Brownie is another Minister of State Joyce Quin.

Left-wing loose cannon Clare Short is looked after at International Development by her deputy George Foulkes.

Another leftie with no love of the Chancellor, President of the Board of Trade Margaret Beckett, is very adequately kept under surveillance by Consumer MInister Nigel Griffiths.

One result of his deal with Mr Blair not to run for the leadership, is that the power of the Treasury has been enhanced rather than reduced since Mr Brown arrived.

If you add to that his stature as a friend and ally of the Prime Minister and the all-embracing tentacles of the FoG Octopus extending from the centre to the fringes of government, and you begin to understand why many MPs , FoGs or not, would never bet against Mr Brown succeeding to 10 Downing Street.

While the terrible triumvirate of Prescott, Cook and Straw may be powerful internal opposition, the dynamic duo of Leader of the House Ann Taylor and Chief Whip Nick Brown at the heart of government business are significant allies.

Especially as Newcastle East MP Nick Brown is at least a match for Mr Blair's key ally Minister without Portfolio Mr Mandelson when it comes to the Machievellian Prince of Darkness Stakes. The Prime Minister knows that if his luck runs out, there is a successor waiting in the Treasury wings with the supporting cast to take over the lead role and his acceptance speech already learned by heart.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.