AUSSIE run-maker Matthew Mott is backing Steve Waugh's men to retain the Ashes this summer -- but not by a landslide margin.

The tourists start the defence of an unbeaten series record against England dating back to 1987 when the long-awaited first Test gets underway at Edgbaston tomorrow.

They are the overwhelming favourites, having won 20 of the last 33 Tests between the countries and 16 of their last 18 Tests in total, a record run ended only by back-to-back defeats in India.

And Victorian batsman Mott sees no reason to argue with the figures.

He said: "I guess at the start of the series you've to go for Australia with a slight edge.

"The conditions will weigh a bit more in England's argument but if I was a betting man I would put money on Australia.

"It's going to be a tight series, although it will be interesting to see how England front up with their injuries, which don't help to stabilise a side that has had a lot of strengths."

England's preparations have been undermined by the loss of Graham Thorpe, Michael Vaughan and Ashley Giles, with the absence of the free-scoring Thorpe a particular blow.

"I'm sure the Australians rate him as the best player. He has got a good record and is very consistent. He's someone you can really turn to to get 70 or 80 and set you up.

"He's a key player for England's batting strength, but they will need a few players to stand up, you can't just rely on one," said Mott.

However, the Rawtenstall professional believes England aren't without a chance if Darren Gough and Andy Caddick can strike some early blows.

He added: "England need to concentrate on their own strengths. If their opening bowlers can get on suitable conditions with a bit of seam and swing and if they can rattle Australia early that's their best chance. But on flatter wickets Australia have a bit more variety and penetration.

"England are probably hardest to beat on their own pitches. Australia have always respected them for their individual players and it's quite noticeable to see how Nasser Hussain has pulled them together.

"They often used to play well for half a game but they have won some tough games recently.

"They have got into position to win games and then buried sides and that message has come back loud and clear."

Complacency was never likely to be a factor within the Australian ranks with their competition for places and the desire to put one over the old enemy certain to have the tourists on the top of their game as they look to recover from their 2-1 defeat to India in the winter.

"It was a great series to watch, one of the best I've seen, and I don't think Australia will read too much into it," said Mott.

"They'll be disappointed with the result, but not with the way they played in difficult conditions.

"It was a tough tour but the Australians always love playing in England. The Ashes is the big tour and in a five-Test series the best side will win.

"And it shows Australia's strength when they can leave out someone like Justin Langer and have Adam Gilchrist batting at seven.

"When you're playing state cricket against Western Australia and get a few wickets you think you're in amongst them and then Gilchrist comes in. He's one of the most destructive batsmen around.

"England have done well in the last two years and the home conditions will suit them, but I think Australia have the edge."

The Australians always regard the opening day of any series as crucial and while Mott doesn't see any direct relation between the recent NatWest Series and the clashes for the Ashes, England won't want to lose further ground to the tourists by being beaten in the First Test.

"It helps that it will be a completely different set of players for England, and Australia will also play a lot of different players as well. The one-day cricket will have no relevance to the Test cricket, although mentally Australia may have got a slight edge," said Mott.

"Knowing Steve Waugh and the way he plays the game he won't read too much into it, although there might be some psychological advantage and if there is they would be silly to waste it.

"I wouldn't like to see an England victory, but I'm hoping it's a good match to set up the series."