Lancashire could experience widespread drought next year without a wet winter, the Environment Agency has warned.
Following 2025’s dry spring and summer, and a run of heatwaves, the North West remains in recovery from drought.
Drought is declared over only when water levels are fully replenished and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of 10 months so far this year, with only January and September registering above average rain.
The country has received only 83 per cent of the average rainfall for January to October, and suffered the driest spring for 132 years and the hottest summer on record.
Environment Agency director of water, Helen Wakeham, said: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.
“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.
“The public has been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country.
“I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”
Despite recent rainfall, the situation remains “precarious”, the Environment Agency said.
Drought status could result in the risk of a hosepipe ban, as well as having effects on crops, wildlife and wildfires as the summer progresses.
The dry conditions also raise the risk of flash flooding when rain does come, as dry soils struggle to soak up heavy downpours and the water simply runs off to cause flood waters.
The warning comes as the Met Office forecasts heavy rain into Saturday, but says that there is a higher than usual likelihood of dry conditions over the three months from November to January, which could cause drought conditions to worsen.
Currently, if the country receives only 80 per cent of the average rainfall expected over winter, all areas other than in the North West will be in drought.
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However, in an even drier scenario, 60 per cent of the average rainfall, the region would be included in drought status, with hosepipe bans, reduced water for irrigating crops, impacts on sports facilities and the potential for “permanent” environmental damage.
Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “While it’s not possible to definitively forecast weather for the next three months, the chances of a dry period are higher than normal.
“A more average three-month period for rainfall is still the most likely scenario.
“It’s important to note that rainfall patterns in England can be variable, so while some may see more rainfall, others will see less, possibly giving limited relief from long-standing dry conditions.”
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