The weekly coronavirus column from Blackburn with Darwen’s public health director

THE Delta wave in Blackburn with Darwen peaked on the June 7 with a case rate of 667.4 per 100,000.

Case rates have fallen most days since then. We did have, as expected, a small ‘Euros Rise’ with increased cases driven by more people mixing indoors during the finals, which sent the rate up to 428 per 100,000 in the seven days to July 17.

In that same period England was on a rate of 529 per 100,000 – a 51 per cent increase on the previous week. The North-West region's weekly case rate rise was lower, at 30 per cent increase but with a case rate of 599.9 per 100,000.

In Lancashire one exception to this trend is Blackpool which now has a case rate of 837 per 100,000 – up 38 per cent in the last seven days.

The North-East are taking a big ‘Delta Wave’ hit, with rates in Redcar and Cleveland for instance now up over 1,500 per 100,000. As a result, much of the North West including Pennine Lancashire has been taken out of the category of ‘Enhanced Response Area’ and much of the North-East been put in it. This will allow them to mount a surge response similar to that recently seen across our county.

Some epidemiologists now think that by the middle of August we will probably see the increased risk of the Delta wave matched by the increased protection offered by the number of those double jabbed. With schools closed and with more of us outdoors than inside for large periods of time, we should then start to see the Delta wave start to subside. Yet, possibly not before we have seen some very high rates in areas previously less affected throughout the pandemic. The English region least affected by Covid cases so far has been the South-West Region. At the beginning of this week it had the highest regional weekly case rate rise at 81 per cent.

For Pennine Lancashire, our key task over August (apart from continuing sensible infection control measures) is increasing vaccination uptake.

In general, Pennine Lancashire has good rates of double vaccination in the most vulnerable groups of those over 50. However we do need to catch up a bit in the youngest cohort (18 to 29) with first doses, some second doses in adults, and in some targeted areas where overall community uptake is lower than average. Males are now also a bit behind females in vaccine take up, particularly in the younger age groups.

Vaccination brings obvious benefits to each and every one of us who are vaccinated (less risk of hospitalisation and death). Those vaccinated are also less likely to pass the virus on. They will also reduce their risk of ‘Long Covid’.

Those resisting vaccination may now want to consider what the implications are for them now the government requires ‘vaccine passports’ from October. Segregation of vaccinated and unvaccinated in enclosed public space is already emerging across a number of European countries. Greece is already implementing ‘Covid-free-restaurants’ - meaning they only cater for patrons able to show an official certificate of full immunity. Some plan to have a 'mixed space' (green and orange signage) - meaning that the restaurant also admits unvaccinated individuals with a negative PCR or rapid test taken within the last 72 or 48 hours respectively and some are signing a 'fully vaccinated staff venue'. This will be highlighted by a sign that depicts a syringe with a green check mark.

Vaccination will always be a personal choice. But either by regulation, or customer demand, some public venues will increasingly want to find ways to provide customers with ‘Covid-free space’. Those not vaccinated may find this increasingly difficult, irritating or unfair- but it will happen. So, for all of these reasons, I think the best advice in relation to vaccination is ‘If you can just do it now’.