ALMOST a quarter of people in a Lancashire hospital bed and nearly half of those receiving critical care were Covid patients at the time the decision was being made about post-lockdown restrictions, the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS) can reveal.

There was widespread criticism among local leaders of the government’s move to place the entire region under the toughest Tier 3 rules – ignoring a plea from councils for the fate of each of Lancashire’s 14 local authority areas to be considered separately.

The government has since released the reasoning behind its decision about the regulations that will come into force across Lancashire when the national lockdown ends on Wednesday.

The brief summary acknowledged that Covid rates had shown “improvements in some areas” – but noted that “pressure” remained on the health service in the county.

NHS data obtained by the LDRS reveals some of the considerations that may have weighed on the controversial call to impose Tier 3 status.

As of Tuesday, November 24 – just 24 hours before the final tiering decision was made – there were a total of 682 people being treated in hospital for Covid across Lancashire and South Cumbria.

That was marginally down on a week earlier, when the 700 mark had been crossed for the first time during the pandemic – and far higher than the 563 peak reached at the peak of the first wave in mid-April.

Of the 682 Covid patients in hospital last week, 617 were occupying general and acute beds, with a further 15 in a high dependency unit and 50 receiving treatment in level three ventilated beds.

That means Covid patients accounted for 48 per cent of all those in critical care across the region and 24 per cent of those in general and acute wards.

Meanwhile, the Covid death rate across Lancashire and South Cumbria the week before the tiering announcement was only slightly below its April peak, based on a rolling seven-day average.

Along with pressure on the NHS, other factors listed in the reasoning for the government’s Tier 3 decision include a “very high” case rate in the over-60s in six unnamed Lancashire districts – of more than 200 per 100,000 people.  

The LDRS approached Public Health England for details of which areas exceeded that level, but was not directed towards the relevant localised data.

The explanation for the county-wide Tier 3 status also referred to a continued “high” positive rate amongst those who come forward for testing.  

Published data shows that in the week ending November 18, the average proportion of Lancashire residents receiving a test who were then confirmed to have Covid was 10.7 per cent, compared to an England average of nine per cent.

Across Lancashire, that figure ranged from 5.3 in Lancaster to 14.8 in Blackburn and Hyndburn – and was falling in all areas bar Hyndburn week-on-week.

South Ribble MP Katherine Fletcher – who is also a biology graduate who studied immunology and infectious medicine as part of her degree – says that having looked at a full range of data, it was with “a heavy heart” that she concluded Tier 3 was the right decision.

“This isn’t politics, it’s people’s lives – it’s the most fundamental aspect of our job,” she added.

“There is not one data point that I can look at and say it justifies us being in Tier 2.   Our hospitals are coping, but there is no spare capacity in the system – so it’s not just about the case rates, it’s about where those cases go and get treated.

“The scientist in me says that [Tier 3] is the correct decision, painful as it is – if you say we want to stop people dying.”

South Ribble’s case rate in the seven days to November 21 stood at 213 per 100,000 people – below the Lancashire and England averages – and was on a downward trend, lending weight to those arguing for a district-by-district approach to the tiering system in the county.

However, Ms Fletcher argues that statistics like that have to be put in context.

She said: “When we started to introduce quarantine for arrivals from other countries over the summer, the case rate per 100,000 was 40.  

"Yet we have got a very strong lobby now saying you can’t justify Tier 3 because our case rates are only [in the 200s].

“I advocated very strongly to keep South Ribble out of the initial [additional Lancashire restrictions] – so it is not like I am some kind of dove about this.   But right now, there is no way – we are at too high a level.

“Bluntly, if we take restrictions off now, there is a really good chance that one of the people I love will not be around at Christmas.”