Shutting pubs and restaurants at 10pm could lead could run the risk of a “surge” in house parties “which are the real hot beds of infection”, hospitality leaders have warned.

The Government has laid out plans for night-time venues to close at 10pm from Tuesday in Lancashire and from Thursday in the rest of England a bid to stem rising coronavirus cases, with some scientists welcoming the move.

On Tuesday, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said the shift would “make a difference”, saying: “There is evidence that the longer venues stay open, the greater degree of social mixing that takes place.”

However some industry figures have said this could be damaging to the hospitality trade and lead to a counter-productive rise in house parties.

Night-Time Industries Association chief executive Michale Kill said: “This curfew will lead to the demise of many of our most beloved cultural and entertainment venues.

He added: “As a result of this measure, we foresee a surge of unregulated events and house parties which are the real hot beds of infection, attended by frustrated young people denied access to safe and legitimate night-time hospitality venues.”

Scientists have also queried how effective the move is likely to be.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine at the University of Leeds, said: “I am less convinced that the 10pm curfew will be effective as it runs the risk of compressing activity and having people leave at a single time in larger numbers.”

He said added: “The messaging surrounding this sort of restriction is confused and the rationale for implementing it has not been made clear.

“The concern is that an unfavourable public response to such measures will erode compliance on the fundamental issues of maintaining space and ventilation, wearing face coverings indoors and in crowded areas, and maintaining good hand hygiene.

“The UK population must be brought together to act in unison if we are to avoid an incredibly difficult and disruptive winter as coronavirus cases rise again.”

Dr Jennifer Cole, biological anthropologist at the Royal Holloway University, said: “There has been a lot of concern that closing bars at 10pm rather than closing them at all will seem to make little difference, but people need to remember that the virus doesn’t spread in a vacuum – the biggest influence on its spread is people’s behaviour.”

She added: “We know that one of the biggest influences in people’s risk-taking behaviour is alcohol.

"The more drunk you are, the less inhibited and less risk-averse you are.

“Closing the bars and restaurants at 10pm simply keeps people more sober.

"It gives them plenty of time for a meal, or a quick drink with friends after work, but means they are likely to be sober enough to remember to put on a face-covering on the train or bus home, and to be careful around elderly relatives when they get home.

“It gives restaurant and bar staff time to give the venue a thorough clean when the last customers have left, without having to work unreasonably late, this means that a lot of the risk is reduced.”

She said data suggested so far that bars and restaurants do not appear to be a significant factor in the spread of Covid-19.

“The measure is not managing people’s behaviour within these venues so much as managing their behaviour when outside, which will be affected by how drunk or sober they are.

“In essence, the Government is saying: ‘Stay sober, stay sensible and the venues can stay open’ – it’s a carrot to encourage responsible behaviour.”

Dr Julian Tang, honorary associate professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said: “This seems like a soft restriction, but it is preferable to total local or national lockdowns; and it could have a useful impact – if everyone tries to stick to it – to hopefully reduce the R number.”